By Lesiba Machaka
South Africa’s population has continued to grow despite a steady decline in fertility, with the country now home to an estimated 63.5 million people, according to the 2026 Mid-Year Population Estimates released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA).
The latest figures show that the population has increased significantly from 42.9 million in 2002, highlighting a demographic transition characterised by fewer births, longer life expectancy and continued migration.
South Africa’s population grew by 1.2% between 2025 and 2026, while its average annual growth rate over the past two decades stood at about 1.3%.
The increase comes as fertility rates continue to decline both in South Africa and globally.
Fewer children, but population still growing
South Africa has not yet reached the stage experienced by some countries where fertility has fallen below the replacement level of about two children per woman.
Stats SA estimates that the average South African woman will have 2.12 children over her lifetime in 2026, placing the country close to replacement level.
The crude birth rate is estimated at 17 births per 1,000 people.
South Africa’s relatively young population is one of the factors helping to sustain population growth. There are still large numbers of women of reproductive age, even though they are having fewer children than previous generations.
Stats SA also uses the B0/Bn ratio, which compares the number of children born with the number required to replace deaths. The ratio remains above two, indicating that more than twice as many children are being born each year as are required to replace those who die.
However, the demographic picture has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Deaths increased sharply during the pandemic, particularly in 2021, before mortality began moving back towards pre-pandemic levels.
Women outnumber men
More boys than girls are born in South Africa, with the 2026 estimates putting the ratio at 103 boys for every 100 girls.
However, the balance changes as people age, largely because men have a lower life expectancy than women.
Women account for 50.9% of the population, representing approximately 32.3 million people.
Life expectancy at birth is estimated at 65.5 years for men and 71 years for women, giving an overall average of 68.3 years.
Infant mortality is estimated at 23.7 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Stats SA estimates that HIV prevalence among the total population stands at 12.3%, with approximately 7.8 million people living with HIV in 2026. Among adults aged between 15 and 49, prevalence is estimated at 17%.
Gauteng remains the population giant
Migration continues to play an important role in determining where South Africans live and how the country’s population is distributed.
Between 2021 and 2026, Gauteng recorded the largest estimated net migration, attracting about 794,991 people. The Western Cape followed with approximately 319,053.
Gauteng remains South Africa’s most populous province, with an estimated 16.3 million residents, accounting for 25.7% of the national population.
KwaZulu-Natal is the second-largest province by population, with approximately 12.28 million people, representing 19.3% of the national total.
The Northern Cape remains the least populous province, with an estimated 1.38 million residents, or 2.2% of the country’s population.
Limpopo has the youngest population
The estimates also reveal significant differences in the age structures of South Africa’s provinces.
Limpopo has the youngest population, with about 31% of its residents aged below 15. It is followed by the Eastern Cape, where 29.6% of the population is under 15.
The Eastern Cape has the country’s largest proportion of elderly residents, with 13.2% of its population aged 60 and above. The Western Cape follows at 12.4%.
Nationally, approximately 25.6% of South Africans — about 16.25 million people — are younger than 15, while 10.7%, or approximately 6.8 million people, are aged 60 and older.
Migration reshaping the country
According to Diego Iturralde, Stats SA’s Chief Director for Demographic and Population Statistics, migration remains a crucial factor in shaping the country’s demographic landscape.
“Migration is an important and inevitable demographic process, as it shapes the age structure and distribution of not only the country, but also the provincial populations,” Iturralde said when releasing the estimates.
The latest figures paint a picture of a country undergoing a gradual demographic transition.
South Africa is still growing, but the nature of that growth is changing. Families are becoming smaller, fertility is declining and people are living longer, while migration continues to influence where people live and where economic opportunities are concentrated.
With the population now estimated at 63.5 million, the country’s demographic future will increasingly depend not only on how many children are born, but also on mortality, migration, ageing and the changing structure of South African households.
Stats SA is expected to release the 2027 Mid-Year Population Estimates in July 2027.
